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Apparel textile retail market will maintain steady growth

[Abstract]:
我们认为,2015年服装家纺终端零售市场将维持平稳增长;企业新领域及新业务拓展进程多数仍在初步规划甚至概念阶段,对2015年业绩难有实质贡献;电商模式对实体渠道替代实质效应是运营效率改善......

We believe that the retail market for apparel and home textile terminals will maintain steady growth in 2015. Most of the new fields and new business expansion processes of enterprises are still initially planning or even conceptual stage, which makes no substantial contribution to 2015's performance. The e-commerce model replaces substantive effects of physical channels Is the improvement of operational efficiency, the trend will continue, and the contribution of e-commerce business to corporate performance will also continue to improve. In recent years, the concrete achievements of enterprises in improving the internal operational efficiency and the refined management of the supply chain, etc. in "internal surgery" will be promising in 2015 To further reflect the progress of corporate profits to improve better than the income side to resume the progress.

2015 terminal retail and corporate revenue difficult to significantly improve

In 2014, terminal retail sales and industry revenue growth declined slightly, but the trend of stabilization has been obvious. In the context of the downward shift of China's economic growth center in the next few years, we believe resident income and expenditure will also remain stable in 2015, and there is hardly any significant increase in the growth rate of the retail terminal market for apparel. It is estimated that the terminal retail sales growth rate will be slightly higher in 2015 At 10%. 1) In 2014, the growth rate of household income and consumer spending decreased quarter by quarter, while the retail sales growth of the industry dropped slightly. 2) Although the revenue of most sub-industries picked up gradually this year, the first three quarters continued to decline over the same period of 2013; 3 ) 2015 spring and summer orders data did not change significantly, reflecting the franchisee attitude is still more cautious.

The main focus of new business growth: resource matching and business synergies

Apparel textile enterprises from the existing product lines to broaden the two areas and actively involved in new areas of business to actively explore new business growth point, the current expansion of most of the new business business is still preliminary planning and implementation of the concept stage, although the long-term room for growth, but It is difficult to have any substantial impact on the contribution made in 2015. We are relatively optimistic about the company's control of resources and new business areas with a high degree of matching and the traditional business and new business with high synergies of the company.

Industry model changes promote operational efficiency

The essential effect of the change of business management mode is the improvement of business operation efficiency. 1) Substitutes for physical channels continued to be replaced by the electricity supplier. Retail sales of "50" and "百家" clothing increased slightly by 1.5% and 1.7% respectively in the first three quarters of 2014, with the growth rate declining faster than that of the zero Overall level of clothing. During the same period, the market scale of b2c market apparel products increased by 53.40% over the same period of last year. 2) E-commerce business contribution to the performance of enterprises will also continue to rise. At present, the proportion of e-commerce revenue of listed companies is basically below 20%, there is still much room for improvement. In 2015, the apparel business of edible textile companies is expected to maintain its rapid growth.

The effectiveness of business efficiency improved

In 2014, the Company improved its operating efficiency and achieved initial success. The growth of net profit in 2014 for men's wear, home textiles and leisure segment improved more than revenue. In 2015, we believe that the concrete achievements of a series of "internal surgical operations" implemented by enterprises in improving their internal operational efficiency, refined supply chain management and others will be further reflected in 2015, and the profit-side improvement progress is expected to be better than the revenue-side recovery progress.

Investment Strategy: "Avoid" and "two main lines"

Maintain the industry "overweight" rating. It is suggested to avoid companies that rely on the concept of "new growth" to drive upvaluation in the previous period and have no real improvement in actual performance in 2015. Active Layout 1. Enterprises that have a high degree of matching between resources and new business areas and companies with high synergies between traditional businesses and new businesses. 2. The mode transformation is proceeding smoothly. The internal management reform has made remarkable achievements and has made a substantial contribution to performance. Recommended Semir clothing and Carolina textile.